Market analysis — Bilbao
Bilbao records 344,127 residents in 2022, a population essentially stable versus 2015 (-0.3%) according to INE's Padrón Continuo, in line with the Basque Country's overall demographic dynamics. Median sale price per square metre in Rendio's analysed listings sits at €4,670/m². The gap between the post-industrial transformation axis —Abandoibarra-Guggenheim, Plaza Circular, Ensanche-Moyua— above €5,600/m², and working-class districts around the historic centre —San Francisco, Zorrotza, Irala, Bilbao la Vieja— in the €2,900-3,700/m² range, profiles a city repositioned in image terms but with cores of relative affordability still intact.
Rental tension scores 30 out of 100 on demand and 47 out of 100 on tenant budget. SERPAVI's average rent estimate (~€800/month in 2024) absorbs around 49% of the per-capita disposable income INE publishes for the province (€19,478/year). Weak demand —in a flat demographic context— combined with reasonable affordability reflects a market consolidated after decades of urban regeneration. Historically, Basque cities with flat demographic momentum and diversified industrial-services employment have shown contained gross yields with low price volatility, a profile that attracts local capital with long time horizons rather than external capital chasing immediate cashflow.
Across 20 districts covered, net yield in Bilbao ranges from 1.33% in Abandoibarra-Guggenheim to 3.12% in San Francisco. The best price-to-rent ratios are in San Francisco (3.12%), Zorrotza (2.84%), Irala (2.81%), Bilbao la Vieja (2.46%) and Casco Viejo (2.44%). Supply concentrates in Ensanche-Moyua (10 listings), Zona Indautxu (10), Zabalburu-Diputación (10) and Abandoibarra-Guggenheim (8), all districts below 1.9% net yield. The gap between working-class districts around Casco Viejo and Bilbao la Vieja, at yields of 2.5-3.1%, and renewed-axis Ensanche districts, at yields of 1.3-1.9%, reflects the premium the market assigns to the new post-industrial image —a premium that doesn't yet translate into better rental yield.
Rendio applies an initial filter to remove listings outside the retail-investor profile: VPO-classified properties or Basque tasada-regime housing, units with active tenants or irregular occupation, «to reform» listings without an estimable refurbishment cost, and cases with incomplete surface or price data. The Catastro reference adds a complementary check when available. The dashboard lets you filter the 150 active Bilbao listings by these criteria and by estimated net yield computed one listing at a time.